FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Rennes 2–1 NantesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Rennes at 45%, draw at 26%, Nantes at 29%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Rennes.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rennes win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Nantes win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.10
Total 2.55
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Rennes or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost