> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Saturday 16 May, 17:00 UTC
Samsunspor vs Goztepe
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Goztepe's Europa League pursuit creates desperation edge despite xG parity, making draw-or-away coverage at 66% the model's optimal play.
Win probability
35.9% home33.8% draw30.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SamsunsporstepGoztepe
1.18Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.15
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
6
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Samsunspor 3–0 Goztepe
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+