FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 16 May 2026
Samsunspor 3–0 GoztepeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Samsunspor at 36%, draw at 34%, Goztepe at 30%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Samsunspor.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Samsunspor win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
34%
Goztepe win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.15
Total 2.43
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 66%
✗ Lost
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.22x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- X2✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Goztepe's Europa League pursuit creates desperation edge despite xG parity, making draw-or-away coverage at 66% the model's optimal play."