FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
San Diego FC 5–0 Austin FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had San Diego FC at 49%, draw at 26%, Austin FC at 25%. The match ended 5-0 — confirming the model's lean toward San Diego FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
FC win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.04 – 1.45
Total 3.49
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 87%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 45%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.55x
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- BTTS Yes✗
> What we said pre-match
"San Diego's 0.59 xG edge and 87% over 1.5 goals probability makes the banker pick the safest play despite balanced win odds."