> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Thursday 14 May, 01:30 UTC
San Diego FC vs Austin FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
San Diego's 0.59 xG edge and 87% over 1.5 goals probability makes the banker pick the safest play despite balanced win odds.
Win probability
48.6% home26.1% draw25.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
San Diego FCstepAustin FC
1.89Base xG · rolling 26-match1.51
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.04Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.45
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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9
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
San Diego FC 5–0 Austin FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+