> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 17 May, 01:30 UTC
San Diego FC vs FC Cincinnati
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
San Diego's 1.82 xG edge and 86% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes the total the safest play despite modest win odds.
Win probability
39.8% home27.1% draw33.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
San Diego FCstepFC Cincinnati
1.69Base xG · rolling 26-match1.72
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.82Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
San Diego FC 3–3 FC Cincinnati
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+