Bawler / USA: MLS / San Diego
Team profile

San Diego Prediction

Per-game numbers from 53 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.0
a game
12.3 faced
On target
4.9
a game
4.7 faced
Goals
1.8 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 53 matches
Next match
29%
San Diego win chance
at Portland Timbers · Thu 20 Aug 02:30

San Diego prediction: for San Diego's next match — Portland Timbers vs San Diego on Thursday 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Portland Timbers are favoured (47%).

San Diego sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.43 expected goals a game and conceding 1.63. Next up is a trip to Portland Timbers, where the model has them as underdogs at 29%.

San Diego in numbers

53 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.7Away 1.9
5.2
Corners · per game
give up 3.7
Home 6.1Away 4.0
13.0
Shots · per game
faced 12.3
Home 14.5Away 11.1
4.9
On target · per game
faced 4.7
Home 5.2Away 4.5
Last 6 games
16 Aug
1-0
@ LAFC
-
13 Aug
3-2
vs Puebla
6-5
10 Aug
1-0
vs Club Tijuana
4-2
07 Aug
1-3
@ Club America
3-7
02 Aug
1-1
@ Minnesota United
4-8
26 Jul
1-0
vs Dallas
9-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Portland Timbers · Thursday 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Win
29%
San Diego
Draw
24%
Loss
47%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How San Diego compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.43
Below average
Goals against
1.63
Leakier than most
Record
3W 5D 3L
11 settled
Real goals
1.5 – 1.4
For / against, per match
Scored1.43
Conceded1.63

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.63 xG per match · +0.18 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on San Diego fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on San Diego

73%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 11, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)67%4/6
Result80%4/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Augvs Colorado Rapids

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ LAFC
High confidence: LAFC or Draw
Sun 02 Aug@ Minnesota United FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs FC Dallas
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ Colorado Rapids
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 Mayvs Vancouver Whitecaps
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs FC Cincinnati
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 Mayvs Austin FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 May@ Seattle Sounders FC
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs Los Angeles FC
High confidence: X2
Sun 05 Apr@ San Jose Earthquakes
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INElias AchouriLMfrom FC København€3m
INIan MurphyCBfrom Colorado RapidsFree transfer
INDagur ThórhallssonRBfrom CF Montreal€440k
INGabriel PiraniSTfrom DC United€305k
OUTHirving LozanoLWto LA GalaxyLoan
OUTAndrés ReyesCBto Atletico NacionalFree transfer
OUTAnisse SaidiSTto Monterey Bay FCLoan
OUTWilson EisnerRBto FC TulsaLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on San Diego and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly