FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
San Diego FC 2–4 Vancouver WhitecapsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had San Diego FC at 22%, draw at 27%, Vancouver Whitecaps at 50%. The match ended 2-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Vancouver Whitecaps.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
22%
Draw
27%
Whitecaps win
50%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.93
Total 3.17
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+2.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.38x
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- X2✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
> What we said pre-match
"Vancouver's 1.93 xG advantage and 50% win probability make their victory the model's most decisive edge despite San Diego's home status."