> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 24 May, 01:30 UTC
San Diego FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Vancouver's 1.93 xG advantage and 50% win probability make their victory the model's most decisive edge despite San Diego's home status.
Win probability
22.4% home27.2% draw50.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
San Diego FCstepVancouver Whitecaps
1.15Base xG · rolling 26-match2.00
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.25Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.93
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 2.5 Goals + X2 + Under 10.5 Corners + Over 22.5 Shots
Model 29.6% · @ 3.38x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
San Diego FC 2–4 Vancouver Whitecaps
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+