FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 17 May 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 2–3 FC DallasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 43%, draw at 30%, FC Dallas at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Earthquakes win
43%
Draw
30%
Dallas win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.24
Total 2.86
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.43x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"San Jose's 1.62 xG advantage and 78% over 1.5 goals probability makes the banker pick the model's most confident play despite modest win odds."