Bawler / USA: MLS / San Jose Earthquakes
Team profile

San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

Per-game numbers from 45 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.6
a game
12.8 faced
On target
5.4
a game
5.2 faced
Goals
1.7 – 1.9
scored – conceded
a game, 45 matches
Next match
35%
San Jose Earthquakes win chance
at LA Galaxy · Thu 20 Aug 02:30

San Jose Earthquakes prediction: for San Jose Earthquakes's next match — LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes on Thursday 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it LA Galaxy are favoured (39%).

San Jose Earthquakes carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.75 expected goals per game against a MLS average of 1.48. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is a trip to LA Galaxy, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 35%.

San Jose Earthquakes in numbers

45 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.9
Home 2.0Away 1.4
6.0
Corners · per game
give up 5.0
Home 6.9Away 5.0
14.6
Shots · per game
faced 12.8
Home 16.3Away 12.8
5.4
On target · per game
faced 5.2
Home 6.0Away 4.8
Last 6 games
16 Aug
1-3
vs St. Louis CITY
4-5
01 Aug
2-4
@ Cincinnati
-
26 Jul
1-1
vs LA Galaxy
-
23 Jul
0-4
vs Orlando City
-
24 May
3-1
@ Portland Timbers
6-4
17 May
2-3
vs Dallas
12-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs LA Galaxy · Thursday 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Win
35%
This team
Draw
26%
Loss
39%
LA Galaxy
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How San Jose Earthquakes compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.75
Above average
Goals against
1.28
Tighter than most
Record
3W 3D 5L
11 settled
Real goals
1.5 – 1.9
For / against, per match
Scored1.75
Conceded1.28

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.75 xG per match · +0.28 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.28 xG per match · -0.17 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 86% of the time on San Jose Earthquakes fixtures (6/7).

How Bawler has done on San Jose Earthquakes

82%
of high-confidence calls correct — 9 of 11, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7
Result75%3/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Augvs Minnesota United FC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Augvs St. Louis CITY SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Aug@ FC Cincinnati
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs LA Galaxy
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs Orlando City SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 May@ Portland Timbers
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs FC Dallas
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 May@ Seattle Sounders FC
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 Mayvs Vancouver Whitecaps
High confidence: 1X
Sat 02 May@ Toronto FC
High confidence: X2
Sun 05 Aprvs San Diego FC
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INAngus GunnGKfrom Free agentFree transfer
INLuka JovanovicSTfrom Adelaide United€600k
INJonathan GonzálezDMfrom FC JuarezUndisclosed
OUTDanielGKto FC Dallas€610k
OUTMark-Anthony KayeDMto SacramentoFree transfer
OUTMark-Anthony KayeDMto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on San Jose Earthquakes and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly