> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 17 May, 02:30 UTC
San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
San Jose's 1.62 xG advantage and 78% over 1.5 goals probability makes the banker pick the model's most confident play despite modest win odds.
Win probability
43.0% home30.2% draw26.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
San Jose EarthquakesstepFC Dallas
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.62Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
1
9
12
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
San Jose Earthquakes 2–3 FC Dallas
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+