FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Santa Clara 2–1 BragaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Santa Clara at 47%, draw at 25%, Braga at 28%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Santa Clara.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Clara win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Braga win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.15
Total 2.70
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Santa Clara or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost