> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Monday 11 May, 19:15 UTC
Santa Clara vs C.D. Nacional
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Santa Clara's 0.47 xG advantage and 73% Over 1.5 Goals probability make the total the strongest edge despite modest win odds.
Win probability
45.4% home29.1% draw25.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Santa ClarastepC.D. Nacional
1.60Base xG · rolling 26-match1.31
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.73Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.26
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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1
9
11
7
3
1
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5
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 22.5 Shots
Model 25.3% · @ 3.95x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Santa Clara 2–0 C.D. Nacional
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+