FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 11 May 2026
Santa Clara 2–0 C.D. NacionalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Santa Clara at 45%, draw at 29%, C.D. Nacional at 25%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Santa Clara.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Clara win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Nacional win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.73 – 1.26
Total 2.99
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.95x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
> What we said pre-match
"Santa Clara's 0.47 xG advantage and 73% Over 1.5 Goals probability make the total the strongest edge despite modest win odds."