> MATCH.PREDICT()·Europe: Europa League·Wednesday 20 May, 19:00 UTC
SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Aston Villa's superior squad depth and recent European pedigree edge a tight xG matchup where both sides create similarly but Villa converts more efficiently.
Win probability
32.9% home31.7% draw35.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SC FreiburgstepAston Villa
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.44
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.39
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
7
9
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
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6
3
1
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3
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2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
SC Freiburg 0–3 Aston Villa
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+