FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 20 May 2026
SC Freiburg 0–3 Aston VillaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 20 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had SC Freiburg at 33%, draw at 32%, Aston Villa at 35%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Aston Villa.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Freiburg win
33%
Draw
32%
Villa win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.39
Total 2.72
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.21x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✓
> What we said pre-match
"Aston Villa's superior squad depth and recent European pedigree edge a tight xG matchup where both sides create similarly but Villa converts more efficiently."