> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 16 May, 13:30 UTC
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Leipzig's superior motivation (Champions League race) combined with balanced xG creates edge in Away Win at 43% odds despite Freiburg's Europa desperation.
Win probability
35.0% home28.8% draw36.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SC FreiburgstepRB Leipzig
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match1.67
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.58Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.61
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
7
5
3
1
1
7
10
8
5
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
1
3
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
SC Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+