FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 16 May 2026
SC Freiburg 4–1 RB LeipzigMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had SC Freiburg at 35%, draw at 29%, RB Leipzig at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 4-1. The model's headline call was RB Leipzig to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Freiburg win
35%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Leipzig win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.58 – 1.61
Total 3.19
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 43%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.24x
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✗
> What we said pre-match
"Leipzig's superior motivation (Champions League race) combined with balanced xG creates edge in Away Win at 43% odds despite Freiburg's Europa desperation."