> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 17 May, 01:15 UTC
Seattle Sounders FC vs LA Galaxy
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Seattle's 0.35 xG advantage and 42% win probability justify backing 1X at 77% as the primary play despite road team's defensive vulnerabilities.
Win probability
42.2% home31.1% draw26.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Seattle Sounders FCstepLA Galaxy
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.23
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.19
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Seattle Sounders FC 0–2 LA Galaxy
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+