FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 3–2 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 32%, draw at 31%, San Jose Earthquakes at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-2. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
32%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Earthquakes win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.32 – 1.44
Total 2.76
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 85%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.05x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Seattle's 32% win probability despite superior xG efficiency suggests undervalued draw odds; X2 at 85% captures the mismatch."