> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Thursday 14 May, 01:30 UTC
Seattle Sounders FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Seattle's 32% win probability despite superior xG efficiency suggests undervalued draw odds; X2 at 85% captures the mismatch.
Win probability
31.8% home31.4% draw36.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Seattle Sounders FCstepSan Jose Earthquakes
1.22Base xG · rolling 26-match1.49
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.32Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.44
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
9
7
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
2
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Seattle Sounders FC 3–2 San Jose Earthquakes
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+