> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Sevilla vs Real Madrid
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Real Madrid's superior motivation and xG advantage (1.71 vs 1.15) makes X2 the banker play despite Sevilla's desperation, with 88% win probability offering minimal value.
Win probability
23.2% home29.4% draw47.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SevillastepReal Madrid
1.07Base xG · rolling 26-match1.78
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.15Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.71
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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10
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2
1
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11
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2
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1
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1
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+