> MATCH.PREDICT()·EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs·Thursday 30 Apr, 19:00 UTC
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Crystal Palace
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
44.4% home30.3% draw25.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Shakhtar DonetskstepCrystal Palace
1.35Base xG · rolling 26-match1.07
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.46Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.03
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
4
2
1
12
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 12.6% · @ 7.94x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Shakhtar Donetsk 1–3 Crystal Palace
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+