FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs · Thursday, 30 April 2026
Shakhtar Donetsk 1–3 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 30 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Shakhtar Donetsk at 44%, draw at 30%, Crystal Palace at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Shakhtar Donetsk to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Donetsk win
44%
Draw
30%
Palace win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.03
Total 2.49
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 7.94x
- 1X✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓