> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Championship·Tuesday 12 May, 19:00 UTC
Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Southampton's superior xG (1.72 vs 1.56) and 77% Over 1.5 Goals probability justify backing goals despite tight playoff pressure equalizing both sides' desperation.
Win probability
39.1% home28.2% draw32.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SouthamptonstepMiddlesbrough
1.59Base xG · rolling 26-match1.62
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.72Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.56
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT + X2
Model 27.2% · @ 3.67x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+