Bawler / England: Championship / Middlesbrough
Team profile

Middlesbrough Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.4
a game
10.1 faced
On target
5.0
a game
3.1 faced
Goals
1.5 – 1.0
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
29%
Middlesbrough win chance
at Blackburn · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Middlesbrough prediction: for Middlesbrough's next match — Blackburn vs Middlesbrough on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Blackburn are favoured (36%).

Middlesbrough sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.45 expected goals a game and conceding 1.28. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.88 goals a game against 1.45 expected. Next up is a trip to Blackburn Rovers, where the model has them as underdogs at 29%.

Middlesbrough in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
Home 1.4Away 1.6
6.8
Corners · per game
give up 4.1
Home 7.6Away 5.9
16.4
Shots · per game
faced 10.1
Home 17.6Away 15.1
5.0
On target · per game
faced 3.1
Home 5.3Away 4.6
Last 6 games
15 Aug
2-1
vs Lincoln
5-5
15 Aug
2-1
vs Lincoln City
5-5
07 Aug
1-0
vs Wrexham
-
23 May
0-1
@ Hull
3-1
12 May
1-2
@ Southampton
-
09 May
0-0
vs Southampton
11-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Blackburn · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
29%
This team
Draw
35%
Loss
36%
Blackburn
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Middlesbrough compare with the England: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.45
Below average
Goals against
1.28
Tighter than most
Record
2W 3D 3L
8 settled
Real goals
0.9 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.45
Conceded1.28

The grey line on each bar is the England: Championship average (1.49 scored, 1.33 conceded).

How Bawler has done on Middlesbrough

63%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 8
Result60%3/5
Goals (Over/Under)67%2/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

Sat 15 Augvs Lincoln City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 07 Augvs Wrexham
High confidence: Home Win
Sat 23 May@ Hull City
High confidence: X2
Tue 12 May@ Southampton
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 09 Mayvs Southampton
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 06 Apr@ Swansea
High confidence: X2
Fri 03 Aprvs Millwall
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Mar@ Blackburn
High confidence: X2

Transfer activity

INWill LankshearSTfrom Tottenham Hotspur€12m
INAshley PhillipsCBfrom Tottenham Hotspur€8.2m
INRadek VítekGKfrom Manchester United€8.1m
INMax ArfstenLWBfrom Columbus Crew€6.5m
INJeremy SarmientoLWfrom Brighton & Hove Albion€3.9m
INKyle JosephSTfrom Hull CityUndisclosed
INSebastian BerhalterDMfrom Vancouver Whitecaps€1.8m
INMyles Peart-HarrisLWfrom Oxford UnitedFree transfer
OUTHayden HackneyDMto Everton€19m
OUTDael FryCBto Birmingham CityFree transfer
OUTDelano BurgzorgLWto Preston North EndLoan
OUTKaly SèneSTto Young BoysUndisclosed
OUTMarcus ForssRWto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTAlex GilbertDMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTSamuel SilveraLWBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTFinley MunroeLWBto BlackpoolLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Middlesbrough and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly