> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Monday 15 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Spain vs Cape Verde
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 74% probability is the play, with Spain's 0.95 xG advantage and 56% win odds ensuring attacking pressure even in a low-total fixture.
Win probability
56.5% home27.0% draw16.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SpainstepCape Verde
1.78Base xG · rolling 26-match1.01
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.92Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.97
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
6
5
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1
1
11
10
5
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2
10
10
5
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7
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3
1
4
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3
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+