> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Thursday 04 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Spain vs Iraq
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% probability, backed by Spain's 1.80 xG and a 0.76 expected-goal advantage that Iraq cannot close.
Win probability
52.0% home28.5% draw19.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SpainstepIraq
1.75Base xG · rolling 26-match1.06
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.80Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.04
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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10
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9
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6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Spain 1–1 Iraq
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+