> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 17 May, 12:30 UTC
Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Sparta's 0.32 xG advantage and 81% Over 1.5 Goals probability suggests underpriced goal-heavy script despite modest 42% win odds.
Win probability
42.0% home29.3% draw28.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Sparta RotterdamstepExcelsior
1.55Base xG · rolling 26-match1.41
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.68Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.36
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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11
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 SOT + 1X + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 28.6% · @ 3.50x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 Excelsior
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+