> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Saturday 16 May, 19:30 UTC
Sporting CP vs Gil Vicente
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Sporting's 1.70 xG advantage with 84% win/draw probability makes 1X the safest play despite modest home odds.
Win probability
51.1% home29.7% draw19.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Sporting CPstepGil Vicente
1.57Base xG · rolling 26-match1.01
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.70Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.97
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
3
1
1
12
11
6
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
6
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sporting CP 3–0 Gil Vicente
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+