FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 16 May 2026
Sporting CP 3–0 Gil VicenteMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting CP at 51%, draw at 30%, Gil Vicente at 19%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Sporting CP.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CP win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Vicente win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.70 – 0.97
Total 2.67
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.30x
- 1X✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Sporting's 1.70 xG advantage with 84% win/draw probability makes 1X the safest play despite modest home odds."