> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Thursday 14 May, 00:30 UTC
Sporting Kansas City vs LA Galaxy
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
LA Galaxy's dominant 1.94 xG advantage and 54% win probability make the away victory the model's sharpest edge despite low home confidence.
Win probability
18.7% home26.9% draw54.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Sporting Kansas CitystepLA Galaxy
1.00Base xG · rolling 26-match2.02
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.08Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.94
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
5
9
9
6
3
1
1
5
10
10
6
3
1
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6
5
3
2
1
3
1
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2
1
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sporting Kansas City 3–1 LA Galaxy
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+