Bawler / USA: MLS / Sporting Kansas City
Team profile

Sporting Kansas City Prediction

Per-game numbers from 45 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.4
a game
15.3 faced
On target
4.2
a game
5.8 faced
Goals
1.3 – 2.1
scored – conceded
a game, 45 matches
Next match
28%
Sporting Kansas City win chance
vs St. Louis CITY · Thu 20 Aug 00:00

Sporting Kansas City prediction: for Sporting Kansas City's next match — Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis CITY on Thursday 20 Aug, 00:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it St. Louis CITY are favoured (46%).

Sporting Kansas City are vulnerable at the back, conceding 2.13 expected goals a game against a MLS average of 1.45. They have struggled lately, losing 4 of their last 5. Next up is St. Louis CITY SC, where the model has them as underdogs at 28%.

Sporting Kansas City in numbers

45 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.3
Goals · per game
let in 2.1
Home 1.4Away 1.1
4.7
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
Home 5.8Away 3.6
11.4
Shots · per game
faced 15.3
Home 12.6Away 10.3
4.2
On target · per game
faced 5.8
Home 4.9Away 3.5
Last 6 games
16 Aug
0-2
@ Colorado Rapids
2-8
02 Aug
0-2
vs Houston Dynamo
2-6
23 Jul
2-1
vs Minnesota United
-
17 Jul
2-3
@ St. Louis CITY
6-5
24 May
1-2
vs New York Red Bulls
6-1
17 May
2-1
@ Austin
7-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs St. Louis CITY · Thursday 20 Aug, 00:00 UTC

Win
28%
This team
Draw
26%
Loss
46%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Sporting Kansas City compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.15
Below average
Goals against
2.13
Leakier than most
Record
3W 1D 7L
11 settled
Real goals
1.1 – 2.4
For / against, per match
Scored1.15
Conceded2.13

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.15 xG per match · -0.33 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 2.13 xG per match · +0.68 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Sporting Kansas City fixtures (7/7).

How Bawler has done on Sporting Kansas City

91%
of high-confidence calls correct — 10 of 11, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%7/7
Result75%3/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Mon 24 Aug@ Atlanta United FC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ Colorado Rapids
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Augvs Houston Dynamo FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs Minnesota United FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 17 Jul@ St. Louis CITY SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 Mayvs Red Bull New York
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Austin FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 Mayvs LA Galaxy
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Portland Timbers
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 Mayvs Seattle Sounders FC
High confidence: X2
Sat 18 Apr@ Vancouver Whitecaps
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INMoisés MosqueraCBfrom FC Juarez€3.6m
INLasse Berg JohnsenCMfrom Malmö FF€3.5m
INCapitaLWfrom Radomiak Radom€2.3m
INDiego Borgesfrom Zalaegerszeg€1.7m
INEmir KaricLBfrom Sturm GrazUndisclosed
INOr BlorianCBfrom Hapoel Beer ShevaFree transfer
INJayden ReidLBfrom St. Louis CityFree transfer
INWyatt MeyerCBfrom Nashville SCFree transfer
OUTMacielo TschantretDMto LexingtonLoan
OUTDániel SallóiLWto Toronto FC€225k
OUTMemo RodríguezAMto SacramentoFree transfer
OUTEthan BartlowCBto Tampa Bay RowdiesLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Sporting Kansas City and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly