FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Seattle Sounders FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 8%, draw at 18%, Seattle Sounders FC at 74%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Seattle Sounders FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
8%
Draw
18%
Actual ✓
FC win
74%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.60 – 2.33
Total 2.93
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 92%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 44%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
1X
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 8.73x
- Away Win✗
- Over 7.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗