> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 02 May, 18:30 UTC
Sporting Kansas City vs Seattle Sounders FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
7.7% home18.3% draw74.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Sporting Kansas CitystepSeattle Sounders FC
0.56Base xG · rolling 26-match2.42
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.60Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.33
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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6
0
5
12
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11
7
3
1
1
3
7
9
7
4
2
1
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1
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2
1
1
3
1
4
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Away Win + Over 7.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 11.5% · @ 8.73x
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Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Seattle Sounders FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+