> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 23 May, 18:45 UTC
St. Louis CITY SC vs Austin FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
St. Louis's 2.09 xG advantage over Austin's 1.03 makes the home win at 59% the strongest play despite modest odds.
Win probability
58.8% home25.2% draw16.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
St. Louis CITY SCstepAustin FC
1.93Base xG · rolling 26-match1.07
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.09Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.03
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
St. Louis CITY SC 3–0 Austin FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+