FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 23 May 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 3–0 Austin FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 23 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 59%, draw at 25%, Austin FC at 16%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward St. Louis CITY SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
59%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
FC win
16%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.09 – 1.03
Total 3.12
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"St. Louis's 2.09 xG advantage over Austin's 1.03 makes the home win at 59% the strongest play despite modest odds."