> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 16 May, 13:30 UTC
St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
St. Pauli's 1.63 xG advantage combined with home-field desperation in a relegation six-pointer makes 1X the optimal play at 73% win probability.
Win probability
44.1% home30.1% draw25.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
St. PaulistepVfL Wolfsburg
1.51Base xG · rolling 26-match1.26
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.63Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.21
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
1
9
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
St. Pauli 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+