FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 16 May 2026
St. Pauli 1–3 VfL WolfsburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had St. Pauli at 44%, draw at 30%, VfL Wolfsburg at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was St. Pauli to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Pauli win
44%
Draw
30%
Wolfsburg win
26%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.21
Total 2.84
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.69x
- 1X✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"St. Pauli's 1.63 xG advantage combined with home-field desperation in a relegation six-pointer makes 1X the optimal play at 73% win probability."