> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Saturday 16 May, 16:15 UTC
Standard Liege vs Racing Genk
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Genk's 39% win probability and league-leading position edge Standard's Champions League desperation despite slight xG disadvantage, making away victory the value play.
Win probability
33.0% home27.5% draw39.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Standard LiegestepRacing Genk
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.85
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.62Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.78
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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1
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10
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5
2
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8
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2
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1
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2
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1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Standard Liege 0–0 Racing Genk
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+