FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 16 May 2026
Standard Liege 0–0 Racing GenkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Standard Liege at 33%, draw at 28%, Racing Genk at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Racing Genk to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Liege win
33%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Genk win
39%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.78
Total 3.39
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.23x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- X2✓
> What we said pre-match
"Genk's 39% win probability and league-leading position edge Standard's Champions League desperation despite slight xG disadvantage, making away victory the value play."