FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Stuttgart 1–1 Werder BremenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Stuttgart at 47%, draw at 24%, Werder Bremen at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Stuttgart to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Stuttgart win
47%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Bremen win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.25
Total 2.90
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Stuttgart or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 58%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Werder Bremen Win
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost