> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 02 May, 11:30 UTC
Swansea vs Charlton
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
43.2% home32.7% draw24.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SwanseastepCharlton
1.20Base xG · rolling 26-match0.92
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.30Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.89
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
10
4
1
1
15
13
6
2
2
9
8
4
1
3
4
4
2
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Swansea 3–1 Charlton
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+