Charlton operate in a narrow xG band—1.17 scored versus 1.18 conceded—suggesting a side caught between defensive solidity and blunt attacking output. Recent form has deteriorated markedly: three losses in five matches with just two draws offer little respite, indicating structural issues beyond variance. With no fixtures imminent, the model's next engagement will be crucial in testing whether this levelled shot profile masks deeper tactical fragility or temporary form noise. Bawler's 60% banker accuracy on Charlton suggests the Poisson framework has captured meaningful edges on this team historically, though current trajectory warrants caution on upcoming selections.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Charlton were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the ENGLAND: Championship average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Charlton are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Charlton actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Charlton's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Charlton fixture, the model lands 3 out of 5 (60%). Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.