> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Thursday 04 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Sweden vs Greece
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 69% probability because Sweden's 0.42 expected-goals advantage and superior shot quality should generate enough chances to breach a Greece side managing just 1.07 xG.
Win probability
43.6% home32.0% draw24.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SwedenstepGreece
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.07
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
8
4
2
1
12
12
7
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sweden 2–2 Greece
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+