Bawler / Sweden vs Greece / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 04 June 2026

Sweden 2–2 GreeceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 04 June 2026

Sweden
2–2
Draw
Greece
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Sweden at 44%, draw at 32%, Greece at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Sweden to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Sweden win
44%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Greece win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.49 – 1.07
Total 2.56
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 46%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 69% probability because Sweden's 0.42 expected-goals advantage and superior shot quality should generate enough chances to breach a Greece side managing just 1.07 xG."

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