Bawler / World: World Cup / Sweden
Team profile

Sweden Prediction

Per-game numbers from 6 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.3
a game
10.8 faced
On target
5.5
a game
5.3 faced
Goals
2.2 – 2.2
scored – conceded
a game, 6 matches
Corners
4.5
a game
5.5 against

Sweden prediction: Bawler's model rates Sweden at 1.29 expected goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match across 7 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 86% of the time. They have lost 2 of their last 5 settled matches. No Sweden fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Sweden sit close to the World Cup average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.29 expected goals a game and conceding 1.50. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.14 a game against 1.29 expected. Across 7 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Sweden have been correct 86% of the time.

Sweden in numbers

6 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.2
Goals · per game
let in 2.2
Home 4.0Away 1.3
4.5
Corners · per game
give up 5.5
Home 2.0Away 5.3
11.3
Shots · per game
faced 10.8
Home 9.0Away 12.0
5.5
On target · per game
faced 5.3
Home 5.0Away 5.7
Last 6 games
30 Jun
0-3
@ France
-
25 Jun
1-1
@ Japan
8-2
20 Jun
1-5
@ Netherlands
5-2
15 Jun
5-1
vs Tunisia
-
31 Mar
3-2
vs Poland
2-9
26 Mar
3-1
@ Ukraine
3-9

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Sweden compare with the World: World Cup average, per match.

Goals for
1.29
Below average
Goals against
1.50
Leakier than most
Record
3W 2D 2L
7 settled
Real goals
2.1 – 2.1
For / against, per match
Scored1.29
Conceded1.50

The grey line on each bar is the World: World Cup average (1.33 scored, 1.38 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 86% of the time on Sweden fixtures (6/7).

How Bawler has done on Sweden

86%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

More on Sweden and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly