> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Monday 15 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Sweden vs Tunisia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals carries 72% probability because Sweden's 0.51 xG advantage and 1.60 expected goals output suggests they'll breach a Tunisian defence generating just 1.09 xG.
Win probability
45.9% home30.8% draw23.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SwedenstepTunisia
1.48Base xG · rolling 26-match1.13
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.60Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.09
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
1
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sweden 5–1 Tunisia
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+