> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 10 May, 14:45 UTC
Telstar vs Heracles Almelo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
48.4% home24.4% draw27.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
TelstarstepHeracles Almelo
2.06Base xG · rolling 26-match1.73
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.23Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.67
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
2
3
3
2
1
1
5
8
6
4
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
1
3
4
6
5
3
1
4
2
3
3
2
1
5
1
2
1
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 10.5 Corners + 1X
Model 35.6% · @ 2.81x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Telstar 3–0 Heracles Almelo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+